So I have to say it: I was right... well mostly. I was right about the big one: Huckbee wins by a very decisive margin. Rombot was second, and the numbers for Mitt and Huck were very close to the Register's numbers. The part I didn't get so right was Fred, who got third. I'm actually pretty impressed at his numbers (compared to the dismal numbers he was polling. Fred's not out of it... yet.  But, still no one's talking about him because McCain is so close on his heals. This will be spun that McCain essentially got third, and the press will run with it because McCain seems to be the main-stream media's golden boy (of the moment).

Here's some great results sites, polls, etc.

http://www.iowagop.net/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#IAREP

I'd love to write more, but the sun has gone to bed and so must I. Goodnight. Goodnight. Goodnight.

It’s been a while since I’ve posted and for that I apologize. While the media is focused on the Huckabee vs. Romney battle for first, the most prized spot tonight on the Republican side is third place.

Its wide open and four candidates (Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, and Paul) have a legitimate chance of claiming a 3^rd place victory. Let’s see what 3^rd place means for each of them.

Thompson: A third place finish would bring a little life into Thompson’s campaign. My take on the Thompson campaign is that they are on life support, and the question is more about when to pull the plug then what they need to do after Iowa. With the rumors of Fred getting out of the race yesterday, I think Fred’s in for a rough night.

I think Thompson is probably looking at a 4^th or 5^th place finish, and if he is going to get out and endorse McCain he should do it tonight. McCain is having his post caucus party at his headquarters, but Fred is set up just steps away from the Polk County Convention Center. Is it a possibility that McCain could make a visit to Fred tonight to receive his endorsement? It would be a genius move, and take away media coverage from both Huckabee and Romney.

McCain: I think McCain is also going to have a great night. Like I said above, picking up a Thompson endorsement would be huge. If you are looking to make news with an endorsement before New Hampshire tonight it the night to do it. I think McCain probably finished 3^rd, but could really be challenged by Ron Paul, especially if turnout is low. There is a real possibility that McCain can be viewed as the big winner tonight.

Giuliani: He isn’t here but it doesn’t mean he didn’t play. Giuliani made countless visits to Iowa this year and ran the most aggressive mail and radio programs. While it’s true to say he never embraced the Iowa Caucuses, he didn’t ignore them. Rudy is only going to beat one guy tonight, Duncan Hunter. Welcome to the bottom tier Rudy.

Paul: This could be really fun, and Paul is a lock for 4^th place, and will probably challenge McCain for the 3 spot. Sure he brings in people from out of state, but he has built a coalition of dedicated Iowa supporters. The media hasn’t even considered what happens in New Hampshire is Paul finished 3^rd in Iowa. Paul is sitting at 10% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a third place bump would be huge, plus he has plenty of money to play with.

Hold on tight, its going to be a wild ride.

    My prediction... Huckabee wins, and by more than most people would think.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Register poll (despite the Register's other numerous flaws) is likely pretty accurate.  I think there will be several first-time caucus goers, and from my conversations with people, a lot of them are going for Huckabee.

Huck's also got the momentum.  He had a great event on New Years Eve with twice as many people as expected (several hundred total), over 2000 at the Chuck and Huck event New Years Day, and a great interview on Leno on Caucus Eve.  The press conference flap hasn't seemed to affect Iowans, and most Iowa media has paid little attention to it.  Of those Iowans who did pay attention, I think a lot of them respect Huck's decision and believe he is trying to run a more positive campaign. 

 Now, who gets third?  That's another very interesting question.  I think one thing is for certain, it won't be Fred.  Despite his high profile Iowa endorsements (King and Salier), he's managed to maintain his trajectory down the toilet.  I'm thinking the third ticket goes to McCain, with Ron Paul also getting good numbers for a 4th place finish.  Fred drops out.  Guiliani is wounded, but pretends he's not. 

Mitt's also wounded.  He knows this is coming and is already trying to lower expectations.  I think the loss hurts him enough in New Hampshire that McCain overtakes him and wins the Granite State.  I think Huck gets South Carolina and a subsequent boost in Michigan.  I think it's possible Romney is essentially out of the race by Feb. 5.

Maybe I'm wrong... only time will tell.  Let the caucusing begin! 

Apparently, Huckabee has decided not to air the “negative” ad he had produced and distributed to local Iowa TV stations in response to the voluminous amount of negative ads that have targeted him lately. He did play the ad once for the journalists gathered at the Des Moines press conference this afternoon to prove that he had indeed produced the ad (otherwise he would be accused of planning the press conference solely for free press).

Huckabee said he decided just minutes before the press conference to pull the ad. I’m sure he will be accused of this being another version of a ploy for free media. Perhaps that’s part of it, and if so, it is a brilliant move. But I really think Huckabee likely had a crisis of conscience regarding the negative ad situation.

I’ve been reading some other national blogs, and it angers me when the commenters attempt to argue that Romney’s ads are merely comparison ads. Everyone take note: when you grievously mislead and outrightly lie, that’s a negative ad dressed in comparison ad wrapping, but it’s negative all the same.

If I had been (unfairly) attacked with the ferocity with which Huckabee has been attacked over the past month, I’d want to unleash my guns, too (particularly given that Mitt has so graciously provided so many targets which could be exploited). I think it took some amazing self-restraint to pull the plug on the “negative” ad, even if he did wait until the last minute.

Will this make Huckabee look indecisive? Possibly. But it could also be seen as a sign of a man with a conscience, a man who really does want to change the nature of politics in this country.

Perhaps I’m just an eternal optimist, but if I had to take a guess, I think that’s what Huckabee is trying to do, and it’s something he should be commended for.

And remember (all together now): Iowans don’t like bullies!