CSI on BGI
Emily Geiger
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Ok, so it’s time for some post-mortem analysis of what happened here in Iowa last Thursday night. Here goes.
1. Turnout
It’s one of the things everyone is talking about, and it was huge on both the Democrat and Republican sides. I can tell you that the turnout at my (Republican) caucus was about double what it was in 2000. Because of the way Republicans caucus, it’s pretty easy to tell exactly what their turnout was. Obviously, there are some huge numbers floating around out there for the Dems, but I’ve yet to see their methodology for determining what their hard numbers really were. I don’t doubt that Dem turnout was huge (and much greater than the GOP’s turnout), but I’m wondering if it might be possible that, much like candidates do at their events, the estimates for the Dem turnout might be slightly exaggerated.
2. First in the Nation?
Did we as Iowans do all we could to promote ourselves as the deserving holders of the First in the Nation status? I think so. All the press I’ve heard talk about their experience here has been positive. WHO’s Dave Price yesterday mentioned how impressed the nation media was by the press venue set up at the Polk County Convention Complex, which was a joint effort by both RPI and IDC. Kudos to those folks who worked together to make that happen. It looked great and made Iowa look great. I also think that Iowa helped its cause in other ways as well.
With Obama coming in first for the Dems, hopefully that will quell those naysayers who like to point out that Iowa isn’t very diverse, and therefore is undeserving of it’s First in the Nation status. We may not be very racially diverse, but we do have diversity of thought, and we’re not afraid to vote for a non-white candidate with an unusual name if we think he’s the best guy for the job. Yepsen also points out that, contrary to what other naysayers like to argue, the large turnout is evidence that the caucuses are an inclusive, legitimate form of democracy. As evidence, Yepsen points to the fact that more people participated in the 2008 caucuses than voted in the 2006 party primaries when we had contested governors races on both sides, and various contested congressional races throughout the state.
Is all this enough to keep us First in the Nation? That probably depends mostly on who actually win the nominations and the presidency. If an Iowa winner wins overall, then Iowa will stay first. If an Iowa loser makes a comeback and wins overall, we’re probably in trouble.
3. Losers
Obviously, the results of the caucuses hurt Hillary and Romney immensely. I know more about the GOP side of things, so that’s where most of my analysis will focus. For Romney to have spent that much money and not win is amazing… but it makes me proud to be an Iowan. We proved that you have to have consistent positions and forward-thinking ideas. You can’t just give us ugly yellow t-shirts and a knock-off of the stadium foam finger (see examples below) and expect us to fall in line to vote for you. We look into people’s eyes, we examine their message, and we compare that message with their record. Mitt Romney failed all three of those tests.
Pictured above: Items that don't buy votes.
4. Winners
Most national pundits were saying Romney would squeak it out. Others were predicting Huck would pull it off, but it would be close. For this one thing, I’ll give kudos to the Register’s Iowa Poll (and the pollster herself, Ann Selzer). Nobody in the media predicted Huckabee’s decisive win except for Selzer (and those of us nobodies who agreed with her).
Obama’s win is obviously huge for him, and I have to say it was fun to watch Hillary get knocked down a peg or two (as the case may be). In terms of the general election, I have mixed feeling about who I’d rather go up against. I think both Hillary and Obama would be tough, but in different ways. Obviously, Obama brings a civility to the Dems that we haven’t seen in a long time. It will be very different running against him, which is why I think Huckabee, the GOP’s “different kind of candidate,” probably has the best chance against him.
Of course the big winner on the GOP side is Mike Huckabee. Not even the Register predicted he would win by NINE points. That is a huge margin of victory. This win has given way to larger than expected crowds for Huck in New Hampshire (Carl Cameron sounded a little shell shocked talking about it this weekend). Nobody expects Huck to win in NH, but I think the Iowa victory gives him the momentum to do better than expected in NH and maintain his status, or even boost his frontrunner status, in South Carolina.
5. Closing thought (for today)
I though I’d better clarify since it seems that certain other Romney buddies… I mean Iowa bloggers have hung up their keyboards for the cycle. I guess people will have to go elsewhere for their pro-Romney (formerly pro-McCain) propaganda.
I digress… I really am proud of our state and its people for the way we handled the 2008 caucuses. Now for the pep talk: stay active, stay involved, and keep paying attention, because even though it seems like this has been going on forever for us here in Iowa, the game has only just begun!
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Response: HelloNot what I was looking for, but very fine site. Thanks.
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