The Battle for Third
Nathan Greene
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It’s been a while since I’ve posted and for that I apologize. While the media is focused on the Huckabee vs. Romney battle for first, the most prized spot tonight on the Republican side is third place.
Its wide open and four candidates (Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, and Paul) have a legitimate chance of claiming a 3rd place victory. Let’s see what 3rd place means for each of them.
Thompson: A third place finish would bring a little life into Thompson’s campaign. My take on the Thompson campaign is that they are on life support, and the question is more about when to pull the plug then what they need to do after Iowa. With the rumors of Fred getting out of the race yesterday, I think Fred’s in for a rough night.
I think Thompson is probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, and if he is going to get out and endorse McCain he should do it tonight. McCain is having his post caucus party at his headquarters, but Fred is set up just steps away from the Polk County Convention Center. Is it a possibility that McCain could make a visit to Fred tonight to receive his endorsement? It would be a genius move, and take away media coverage from both Huckabee and Romney.
McCain: I think McCain is also going to have a great night. Like I said above, picking up a Thompson endorsement would be huge. If you are looking to make news with an endorsement before New Hampshire tonight it the night to do it. I think McCain probably finished 3rd, but could really be challenged by Ron Paul, especially if turnout is low. There is a real possibility that McCain can be viewed as the big winner tonight.
Giuliani: He isn’t here but it doesn’t mean he didn’t play. Giuliani made countless visits to Iowa this year and ran the most aggressive mail and radio programs. While it’s true to say he never embraced the Iowa Caucuses, he didn’t ignore them. Rudy is only going to beat one guy tonight, Duncan Hunter. Welcome to the bottom tier Rudy.
Paul: This could be really fun, and Paul is a lock for 4th place, and will probably challenge McCain for the 3 spot. Sure he brings in people from out of state, but he has built a coalition of dedicated Iowa supporters. The media hasn’t even considered what happens in New Hampshire is Paul finished 3rd in Iowa. Paul is sitting at 10% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a third place bump would be huge, plus he has plenty of money to play with.
Hold on tight, its going to be a wild ride.
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