Predictions
Emily Geiger
1 Comment
My prediction... Huckabee wins, and by more than most people would think. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Register poll (despite the Register's other numerous flaws) is likely pretty accurate. I think there will be several first-time caucus goers, and from my conversations with people, a lot of them are going for Huckabee.
Huck's also got the momentum. He had a great event on New Years Eve with twice as many people as expected (several hundred total), over 2000 at the Chuck and Huck event New Years Day, and a great interview on Leno on Caucus Eve. The press conference flap hasn't seemed to affect Iowans, and most Iowa media has paid little attention to it. Of those Iowans who did pay attention, I think a lot of them respect Huck's decision and believe he is trying to run a more positive campaign.
Now, who gets third? That's another very interesting question. I think one thing is for certain, it won't be Fred. Despite his high profile Iowa endorsements (King and Salier), he's managed to maintain his trajectory down the toilet. I'm thinking the third ticket goes to McCain, with Ron Paul also getting good numbers for a 4th place finish. Fred drops out. Guiliani is wounded, but pretends he's not.
Mitt's also wounded. He knows this is coming and is already trying to lower expectations. I think the loss hurts him enough in New Hampshire that McCain overtakes him and wins the Granite State. I think Huck gets South Carolina and a subsequent boost in Michigan. I think it's possible Romney is essentially out of the race by Feb. 5.
Maybe I'm wrong... only time will tell. Let the caucusing begin!
Reader Comments (1)
This blog is becoming one of my favorites.
Keep up the good work!
Great prediction.