With the end of the year quickly approaching, I thought it might be a good time to look back at 2007 and see what the Republican campaigns did well and where they tripped up here in Iowa. I’ll be the first to admit that hindsight is 20/20, but many of these campaigns made what I think were fatal mistakes, while only a few avoided them.

If you talk to any Republican insider, each and every one of them will tell you this is a caucus cycle like none they have seen before. Some will say it’s that way because McCain and Giuliani have not focused on building top-notch campaign efforts in Iowa. Others will say it’s because of the frontloading of the nomination calendar which is providing multiple routes to the Republican nomination.

I’ve been amazed at the difference between the Democrat and Republican campaigns in Iowa. Now, I’m not talking about the number of staffers.  Democrats need more people on staff as they need to identify people’s second choice and find people to pick up supporters for candidates who didn’t reach viability. I’m talking about the amount of activity these campaigns have committed to Iowa. Not a day goes by when at least four of the six Democrat candidates are not in Iowa campaigning. On the Republican side, campaigns make short visits to Iowa and leave to visit other states.

If I were running one of these campaigns, I would have kept an eye on these Democrat campaigns because they have already been through a somewhat compacted nomination race in 2004. It’s apparent how important Iowa is to each of the Democrat’s chances to win the nomination. The same goes for the Republicans, but many of those campaigns failed to realize it early this year and now are screwed.

So, let’s take a look at each one in the race. It's in alphabetical order.  I’ll be doing some final power rankings real soon.

A look back on Rudy Giuliani and his Iowa efforts.

Giuliani began his foray into Iowa in April with a visit to Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. Little did the two largest communities in the state know then that the majority of Giuliani’s time in Iowa would be spent there. Such a strategy is used by a presidential nominee or sitting president running for reelection.  Just one problem here: Giuliani wasn't, isn't, and the way it looks, never will be either the nominee or a sitting president.

Sometimes it seems to me that the media has a perception that candidates like Giuliani and McCain stand no chance in Iowa where social conservatives or evangelicals dominate the electorate. The truth is that recently (2000 and 2008), the more moderate candidates have ceded the state to that segment of voters, giving them even more power and influence in Iowa and nationally when the winner of Iowa is announced on caucus night.

There is no doubt in my mind that if Giuliani would have used his celebrity to introduce himself to Iowans, he would have found plenty of fertile ground on which to grown his campaign. Instead Giuliani stuck to the large population centers and ignored much of the rest of the state.

In June, Giuliani also decided to skip the Iowa Straw Poll, an early test of a campaigns organization. His reasoning was that it would have cost him three million dollars to compete.  So instead of competing, he would use those resources in the fall when more people would be paying attention. In addition to not participating in the Straw Poll he also passed on other party events.  While not the end of the world, Iowa caucus goers are always watching and tend to reward those who take them seriously.

So what is Rudy Giuliani’s biggest mistake in Iowa? It’s simple, his lack of commitment to Iowa gave birth to Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. As I write this today, both have a better shot at winning the Republican nomination than Giuliani does. I never would have thought that this summer. In fact, there are very few people who give Giuliani’s Florida/February 5^th strategy any chance of working.

Caucus Lesson: If you are running for a president, it’s a good idea to take the first contest seriously. If you invest in Iowa, Iowans will reward your campaign.

A look back on Mike Huckabee and his Iowa efforts.

Let me try and put this is perspective for all of you. This spring, the hot rumor going around was that Huckabee was going to abandon his presidential campaign and run for the United States Senate in Arkansas. Rumors fly around in politics all of the time, but this one had legs. At the Straw Poll many people expected Huckabee to be the casualty at the end of the day, not Tommy Thompson.

Huckabee didn’t just survive, he thrived. As the field began to dwindle, more and more people began to pay attention to the former Governor of Arkansas. He turned in solid debate performances, catchy one liners, and let Iowa Caucus goers get a glimpse of who he is as a person. The latter is something many candidates either have a hard time doing or simply will not do. Huckabee showed a fun side by bringing his band up to Iowa for a number of appearances.

A number of people I talked to said they didn’t think it seemed presidential. On the other hand there were a number of people like me who are political junkies that love to go to events, but wanted to see something different and fun. Huckabee used his band to show voters some personality and that politics can be fun.  It also created an opportunity to get Huckabee supporters to invite their friends and family members to come out and have some fun while introducing those people to a presidential candidate.

Now just a note to any future presidential candidates. Just having a band will not get it done in Iowa. Mike Huckabee also can deliver a speech better than anyone else on the Republican side. Every time I’ve seen him give a speech he has the audience in the palm of his hand. If you don’t believe me, ask anyone in the press corps here in Iowa who gives the best speech.  They will unanimously tell you its Huckabee.

I think Huckabee is the one candidate who best understands the makeup of Iowa caucus goers. They want the whole package; they want someone who is solid on the issues of marriage, life, and taxes. But Huckabee also strikes a cord when he talks about education and health care. Issues alone can get you a long way in Iowa, but the final piece of the puzzle is being likable and approachable. He smacks that one out of the part. People like Huckabee; they like him so much that he is somewhat immune to the negative attacks from Romney and Fred Thompson.

Huckabee needs to deliver on Caucus night to complete his epic rise from the nowhere, but for the most part, he has used his limited resources wisely and has a good chance of parlaying them into what could be the Republican nomination.

Caucus Lesson: Keep your head down and do your own thing. Don’t get wrapped up in what people are saying in July. This is advice every other campaign should heed.

A look back on Duncan Hunter and his Iowa efforts.

I really wanted to leave this blank, but Congressman Hunter is a great man.

I laughed when I wrote the word Duncan Hunter and Iowa efforts because he hasn’t done anything in this state. Instead, Hunter has spent substantial time in South Carolina. For his efforts he is currently sitting at just 1% in South Carolina.

Now I’m not going to spend much time writing about Duncan Hunter, but he really messed up by not committing to Iowa. I give him credit for attending RPI events including the Straw Poll, but he could have done so much more. Hunter poured early money into pointless radio and TV ads in South Carolina. That money would have been better spent on hiring some good Iowa people to run his Iowa operation.

Caucus Lesson: If you are a no-name going to run for president, Iowa is for you. Just watch and see what Chris Dodd does on the Democrat side on Caucus Night. Hunter should have moved to Iowa and spent his time driving all around the state. He would have gotten more bang for his buck.

A look back on John McCain and his Iowa efforts.

McCain started off 2007 with a bang in Iowa. He assembled a great staff and eventually brought in a talented campaign manager. At the start of the year it looked like Iowans were is store for a battle of two titan campaigns McCain vs. Romney.

Unfortunately for McCain, his campaigns fundraising team could not meet their goals, but his campaign spent like they did. Faced with a bloated campaign with too much overhead, McCain had to retool in early summer. He slashed his staff, he didn’t play at the Straw Poll, and many people left him for dead.

Most Iowa insiders expected McCain to pull the plug on Iowa and focus just on New Hampshire. He didn’t. McCain did focus on New Hampshire but kept the lights on in his Iowa HQ. McCain’s decision to keep an Iowa presence might be the most brilliant decision in 2007. As John McCain now challenges Romney in New Hampshire, he can also come to Iowa and mess with Romney.

McCain has also mopped up on newspaper endorsements in Iowa. He received the nod for the Des Moines Register and the QC Times. While newspaper endorsements don’t do much on the Republican race in Iowa, it has provided McCain with some much needed earned media. McCain now has momentum leading into the final days before the caucuses. If McCain does poorly in Iowa, it doesn’t matter, but if he finishes 3^rd or better, it's bad news for Romney no matter what he does in Iowa.

Caucus Lesson: This is a weird one. I really think he overreacted in June when he blew up his staff. I have always thought that McCain could do well in Iowa, which the polls are now showing. I think the lesson is one that McCain learned in 2000: don’t ignore Iowa.  You might not win it, but getting one of those three tickets out of here can be valuable, especially if you have something cooking in New Hampshire.

A look back on Dr. Ron Paul and his Iowa efforts.

Ron Paul’s Iowa campaign took shape on June 30^th when Paul wasn’t allowed to participate in the Iowans for Tax Relief/ Iowa Christian Alliance presidential forum. In a wise decision the Paul campaign rented the room next door and had their own event which attracted a crowd equal to the size of the forum.

Paul then put staff on the ground in Iowa and took part in the Iowa Straw Poll. Since then, Paul hasn’t run a traditional Iowa caucus campaign. He has very rarely visited the state and hasn’t made it to many communities across the state. Instead he has flooded mail boxes and answering machines with the traditional issues on which Republican caucus goers agree: life, tax policy, and limited government.

I don’t really know what I would have done differently if I was running the Paul campaign. I guess I might have played down my position to bring all the troops home as soon as he takes office. I know that many of his supporters flocked to him because of his anti-war stance, but on the other hand, it paints him unfairly to caucus goers who don’t know him. I always ask people what they think about Ron Paul, and I always laugh when they say they think he is too liberal. By being anti-war, people just assume that he is also pro-choice, which couldn’t be farther from the truth. This is what makes it almost impossible for him to hit the road and go county to county. People either love him or hate him. There is no in between, which makes it difficult to attract a crowd outside of visiting college campuses.

Caucus Lesson: Having fanatic supporters is a bonus on a presidential campaign, but you need to be able to turn their energy into useful things for the campaign. I think they have done this with his internet fundraising events, but earlier this year, his supporters got out of hand harassing the folks at ITR and ICA. I understand why they were pissed, but those are not the people you want to piss off in a caucus state.

A look back on Mitt Romney and his Iowa efforts.

Romney’s presidential efforts started long before his term as Governor of Massachusetts ended. In fact Romney’s Senior Iowa Advisor, David Kochel, was Romney’s mail vendor in his 2002 campaign for Governor. In addition to Kochel, Romney nabbed Gentry Collins to be the Executive Director of the Republican Governors Association when Romney chaired the group. Romney used his position at the RGA to travel around the country and give large sums of money to gubernatorial candidates in 2006. Romney brought the RGA’s annual meeting to Des Moines in 2005. In June of 2006 Romney hired three field staffers to start laying the ground work for his presidential campaign.

When looking back at the Romney campaign, I think its best to break it up in two parts, Pre-Straw Poll and Post-Straw Poll.

In the months leading up to the Iowa Straw Poll, the Romney campaign implemented a flawless ground game in the state. In fact, they were so effective, I believe they alone forced Rudy Giuliani into believing there was no way he could compete. John McCain, for financial reasons, then followed Giuliani’s lead and also skipped the event. Romney was in a difficult position.  On one hand, he had to do some chest pounding so the national media would consider him a viable candidate, which they did. Unfortunately, he also scared the guys he really needed to beat at the Straw Poll from participating. No matter how you look at it, Romney’s Iowa strategy centered around the Straw Poll, and they got exactly what they wanted out of participating in the event.

After the Iowa Straw Poll, many insiders expected Romney to continue to do the things in Iowa that elevated him to his frontrunner status nationally. For the most part they did, but Romney’s front runner status now required a more complex multi-state strategy, rather than just an Iowa strategy. Initially, Romney’s campaign seemed to adjust, but they started to believe their own headlines. In late August and September, people inside and outside of the Romney campaign believed that Romney had Iowa all wrapped up. Romney focused on visiting other parts of the country.  He sent his wife, Ann, to the Republican Party’s Reagan Dinner in October, and then passed on the Fox News debate that was to be held in December. Meanwhile, the field narrowed with the exit of Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback, and their supporters were looking for a new home.

While Romney still has the most routes to the nomination, he also has to overcome something no other campaign does; he has to fight a two-front war with two very different candidates. In Iowa, he is battling the populist Governor from Arkansas, Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has ignited the support of Iowa’s evangelical community, who also make up a huge block of traditional caucus goers. In New Hampshire, he has to battle John McCain.

So, as the campaign approaches caucus day, Romney can’t simply camp out in Iowa.  He can’t continue to just attack Huckabee.  He also has to pay attention to John McCain, who isn’t just doing well in New Hampshire, but is also climbing in the most recent Iowa polls. It will be difficult to stay on message fighting a two front war, and it doesn’t help that Christmas and New Years is going to take away a bunch of campaigning days.

So what’s been Romney’s biggest mistake? I really don’t know. I think it’s the lack of killer instinct. This summer Romney ignored John McCain after dropping out of the Straw Poll, and he also dismissed Huckabee after Huck's surprise 2^nd place finish because they believe he just got lucky in Ames and didn’t have the necessary organization to win Iowa.

You could also make the case that Romney’s biggest mistake is trying to be everything to everybody. It’s safe to say that people don’t agree with Huckabee and McCain on everything, but people can get beyond those things and look to the larger picture with a candidate they trust.

Caucus Lesson: If your Iowa strategy works, don’t shy away from it, embrace it. When you have the opportunity to kill off an opponent do it, because if you let them get up and dust themselves off, they will come back to haunt you.

A look back on Fred Thompson and his Iowa efforts.

This summer, I truly believed that Iowa was Fred’s for the taking. I was amazed by the amount of media he was able to generate without being an official candidate. It’s important to understand that he was doing this during the lead up to the Straw Poll, which is similar to what we are experiencing now in regards to the amount of campaign activity by all the candidates.

Thompson’s poll numbers were great, but he missed his window of opportunity by not announcing until late summer. By the time he strolled into the race, the Republican field had changed dramatically. Tommy Thompson was out, Tancredo and Brownback were basically dead in the water, and people became frustrated with Fred Thompson’s flirting with the electorate. Some speculate that the reason Thompson dawdled during the summer was because of the Straw Poll. By delaying their entry into the race, they could avoid spending resources at the event and avoid being embarrassed by the lower tier candidates who had been working on turnout for months.

While I think the Thompson campaign made the right choice in regards to the Straw Poll, the decision did have negative consequences. First and foremost, it gave birth to an alternative to Romney in Mike Huckabee.

When Thompson announced in Des Moines and went on his first tour of the State, there was still plenty of excitement. What really hurt his campaign, however, was the simple fact that Candidate Thompson could not live up to the expectations that the media and the talking heads had put on him. Instead of Ronald Reagan, we got a slow talkin' old guy. He said the right things, but the delivery was terrible, something you wouldn’t expect from an actor.

For all of Fred’s faults, he is still a viable candidate in Iowa. Last week he kicked off his statewide bus tour, and got a nice little surprise when Congressman Steve King endorsed him. A few days later, he picked up former Tancredo state chair, Bill Salier. It might be too late for the Thompson campaign to consolidate all of the conservatives around him, but these two endorsements, in addition to a flurry of Iowa activity, should help caucus goers who are flaking off of one campaign or who are still undecided.

Caucus Lesson: Never assume you are going to fill some void the media is talking about. Voids are just opportunities; just saying that you are running will not seal the deal with these folks.

As we enter into the final days before the caucuses, each of these candidates have a shot at being the story on caucus night, except for Duncan Hunter. I’ll be writing a story on the battle for 3^rd place in the coming days.

Have a Merry Christmas,

Nathan Greene